Travel ban raises Caucasus security concerns amid Armenia’s diplomatic constraints

2026-03-10 - 15:25

The war with Iran continues to take increasingly drastic and violent turns as the conflict progresses. On March 6, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better and stronger than ever before.” The statement suggests that U.S. policy is aimed at forcing Iran to capitulate. In what was described as a 30-day waiver, the United States eased sanctions to allow India to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea as the war escalates. The situation has significantly increased demand for Russian oil, according to the Kremlin. At the same time, Trump dismissed claims that Iranian Kurds might assist the United States in a ground invasion of Iran, saying: “We’re not looking to the Kurds going in. We’re very friendly with the Kurds, as you know, but we don’t want to make the war any more complex than it already is.” By March 6, the death toll in Iran had risen to 1,300, with at least nine killed in Gulf states and more than 200 in Lebanon. Hagop Pakradouni, an Armenian Revolutionary Federation Bureau member and member of Lebanon’s parliament, said: “The situation in Lebanon is extremely dangerous and there are no tangible hopes for the war to end soon.” On March 7, Trump said the United States, together with Israel, had “wiped out” Iran’s navy, air force and most of its missile capabilities. However, tensions have risen between the United States and the United Kingdom, which appears reluctant to join the war but has placed two aircraft carriers on high alert for possible deployment to the Mediterranean to defend British interests, particularly in Cyprus. Trump criticized the move, saying: “The United Kingdom, our once great ally, maybe the greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer — but we will remember. We don’t need people that join wars after we’ve already won!” Regional tensions On March 8, ahead of the election of Iran’s new supreme leader, President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to neighboring countries affected by Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, drawing criticism from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which disapproved of the remarks. The incident could signal growing tensions between reformists and principalist factions, as well as between the presidency, the supreme leader and the IRGC, as the conflict continues. Iran also denied involvement in drone attacks on Azerbaijan, Turkey and Cyprus. On March 10, Iran’s ambassador to Armenia, Khalil Shirgholami, also stated that “this incident was suspicious, and Azerbaijan’s response was disproportionate and unfriendly. Their reactions caused our military command to warn the Republic of Azerbaijan that instead of starting these processes, it should be careful not to let the Israeli regime attack the Islamic Republic of Iran from their territory, because if there is an attack, we will respond without hesitation and with full determination.” The same day, it was reported that Azerbaijan had sent humanitarian aid equivalent to 10 tons of flour, 6 tons of rice, 2.4 tons of sugar, more than 4 tons of water, nearly 600 kilograms of tea and almost 2 tons of medicines and medical supplies to Iran. Leadership change On the same day, Iran’s Assembly of Experts announced the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader. Mojtaba Khamenei had long been considered a leading contender to succeed his father, maintaining close ties with principalist factions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and known as a hardline cleric. U.S. President Donald Trump immediately responded, saying he was not happy with the choice adding: “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me. We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran.” On Nov. 4, 2019, the 40th anniversary of the Iran hostage crisis, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Mojtaba Khamenei for acting on behalf of the supreme leader, working closely with the IRGC and serving as a gatekeeper for the regime. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei on March 9 on his election as Iran’s supreme leader, saying: “I am confident that the strong ties between Armenia and Iran will continue to develop and achieve new successes. Taking this opportunity, I wish the friendly people of Iran well-being and lasting peace.” On March 9, Trump, when asked when the war might end, said: “I think it’s mutual ... a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account.” The remark suggested that Israel is an equal partner in the war. He also added that the war would end quickly but that the U.S. has not yet won enough to end it immediately. Oil prices have also risen since the war began due to the inaccessibility of the Strait of Hormuz, with crude reaching $120 per barrel and dropping back to $84 before rising again to $90. Prices were affected even by statements from President Donald Trump regarding the possible end of the war. On the same day, reports surfaced that the newly elected supreme leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, had been injured and had not been seen since the war in Iran began. Humanitarian corridor and crisis management The Armenia-Iran border has remained stable, according to Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On March 7, the ministry reported that nationals of 41 countries had departed Iran through Armenia. It also said that only a small number of Iranians had crossed into Armenia for safety. The announcement underscored Armenia’s role as a humanitarian corridor during the war. The government also said up to 250,000 Armenian drams (about $660) would be allocated as compensation for citizens whose flights were canceled or who were forced to purchase new tickets. Meanwhile, 56 Armenian citizens in Thailand and 63 in the United Arab Emirates remained stranded due to flight delays linked to the war. Another 10 Armenian citizens were reported safe in Baghdad while awaiting transport home. Security concerns also appear to be rising after Israel advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, raising fears that the war could spill over into the Caucasus. On March 9, Pashinyan held the third Security Council meeting since the war began, focusing on implementing previously issued instructions and staying briefed on the situation. Domestically, Armenia’s government has faced repeated criticism for alleged mismanagement of the crisis. In response, Pashinyan lashed out in Armenia’s National Assembly, saying the opposition Armenia Alliance would not win any seats in the next parliament. He added: “We have a working group regarding this situation; it was formed a year or a year and a half ago.” The extraparliamentary Bright Armenia party, a former ally of the ruling Civil Contract party, said through its leader, Edmon Marukyan, that Armenia’s foreign minister made a mistake by contacting Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov regarding the drone strike in Nakhichevan, noting that Iran had already denied involvement. Marukyan also criticized the inclusion of the Armenian flag in an image posted by Azerbaijan thanking 40 countries for their solidarity. Karen Khanlarian, a member of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Supreme Council of Armenia, said the government’s response appeared constrained about how the war might develop, creating the perception of a lack of independence and sovereignty.