Regional vulnerabilities exposed as reliance on Armenia grows

2026-03-23 - 13:31

Within the South Caucasus, the drone attack on Azerbaijan has left visible damage and exposed the vulnerability of Nakhichevan, whose air and land transit depend on Iran. One alternative could be Turkey’s Igdir province, potentially increasing Azerbaijani reliance on routes through Armenia. Developments in Armenia On March 16, Armenia’s minister of education, science, culture and sports, Zhanna Andreasyan, said discussions are ongoing with Iran on various cultural and educational initiatives, including the teaching of Persian as a regional language in Armenia. Meanwhile, regarding population movement, on March 17, Armenian Commissioner for Diaspora Affairs Zareh Sinanyan said there are no large numbers of Iranian Armenians moving to Armenia, adding that no concrete figures are yet available. In the same context, on March 18, the chairman of the State Revenue Committee said, “We are following the dynamics every day. The movement of people and cargo [at the Armenian-Iranian border] is almost at the same levels as before.” On March 17, the Iranian Embassy in Armenia said the Islamic Republic was in dire need of medicines and medical supplies. The embassy added: “In response to numerous calls from our compatriots living in Armenia, as well as Armenian friends, for financial and humanitarian — especially medical — assistance, we hereby inform that the Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran has expressed its readiness to urgently receive any necessary medicines and medical supplies from individuals, humanitarian organizations, medical equipment suppliers, pharmaceutical companies and rescue organizations.” From an economic standpoint, Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan and Central Bank Governor Martin Galstyan said that if the war ends quickly, Armenia’s economic stability will not be affected. However, further escalation, based on current figures, could lead to inflation of 1.2% to 1.7%. In terms of energy cooperation, on March 18, Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Davit Khudatyan said electricity exports from Armenia to Iran have continued steadily, indicating that Armenia reported a 2.5 billion kilowatt-hour electricity production surplus in 2025, facilitating exports to Georgia and Iran. At the security level, on March 20, Defense Minister Suren Papikyan said the ministry is continuously evaluating the security situation to ensure Armenia’s safety. At the political level, On March 19, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran does not need to appeal to us regarding humanitarian aid, because if we see any humanitarian need that we can support, we will take that step ourselves.” On March 23, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan rejected claims that Armenia had failed to provide humanitarian assistance to Iran, stating that Yerevan had in fact delivered aid — primarily medical supplies — and emphasizing that such support reflects longstanding bilateral ties, even if not always publicly highlighted. ARF Armenia Supreme Body member and Armenia Alliance lawmaker Arthur Khachatryan, speaking at the European Parliament, said that TRIPP in its current form will not be able to break Armenia’s encircled border constraints. He added that peace cannot be possible while occupying forces remain on Armenian soil. Evacuations continue steadily via Armenia On March 16, India thanked Armenia for facilitating the evacuation of 550 Indian nationals from Iran through Yerevan, a figure that rose to 900 by March 19. At the same time, young Iranians are traveling through Armenia to return home during the war, with some arriving via Turkey due to limited flight options and rising costs. Overall, citizens of 52 countries have been evacuated from Iran through Armenia, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The situation in Lebanon Meanwhile, the situation in Lebanon continues to escalate. The state-run National News Agency reported that the death toll has risen to 1,029, with 2,786 others injured. The number of displaced people has reached 134,377, while the number of shelters stands at 644. Amid these developments, ARF Lebanon Central Committee Chairman Alber Balabanian said the targeted areas had a relatively small Armenian population and that the Nabaa strike was located on the outskirts of Bourj Hammoud.