Drone strike raises fears of Iran war spillover

2026-03-06 - 17:34

The situation in the Caucasus remains critical as the war between Iran, the United States and Israel continue to expand and draw numerous regional actors into the confrontation. For Armenia, a landlocked Caucasian state, maintaining a balance between the sides remains crucial to ensuring its security. One of the primary concerns has become the fate of TRIPP, as regional escalation may hinder the implementation of the project, which is of significant interest to the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan. On March 2, Armenian authorities informed Iran’s ambassador to Armenia, Khalil Shirgholami, that TRIPP would not be used in a manner that would pose a security threat to Iran. In response, Shirgholami highlighted Tehran’s foreign policy priorities toward Yerevan, including the security, territorial integrity and sovereignty of Armenia in the event of any peace treaty with Azerbaijan or during the implementation of TRIPP. In this context, Azerbaijan also adopted an early balanced stance toward the war. Iranian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mujtaba Demirchilu praised the position, noting the high level of coordination between Iran and Azerbaijan. War expands across the Middle East On the fourth day of the war, March 3, Tehran continued attacks against American and Israeli targets throughout the Middle East. The U.S. Embassy and the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates were targeted by Iran, while the building of the Assembly of Experts in Qom was targeted by U.S.-Israeli forces. The Assembly of Experts is an elected body composed exclusively of mujtahids — Islamic scholars with authority over Islamic law — and is responsible for electing the next supreme leader of Iran. Several Gulf states also declared their willingness to defend against Iran if the war continues to escalate regionally. The theater of war also expanded to Lebanon, where Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, areas where Hezbollah maintains significant military infrastructure. In Lebanon, the situation has escalated significantly following repeated Israeli airstrikes. More than 83,000 people have been displaced, with 102 killed and 638 wounded. So far, there have been no reported casualties among Lebanese Armenians. Armenia-Iran border and trade disruptions Regarding the Armenia-Iran border, Armenia’s State Revenue Committee said the Agarak customs checkpoint was operating normally and there had been no change in the volume of cargo transportation between Armenia and Iran. However, the crossing closed on March 4 after Iranian authorities reported technical problems with control systems, affecting cargo transportation. Approximately 400 to 450 trucks cross the Agarak checkpoint daily. Armenia and Iran recorded about $770 million in annual trade in 2025. On March 5, the Armenia-Iran border crossing reopened for passenger traffic, although cargo transportation remained limited. The State Revenue Committee said 180 to 200 trucks were waiting for the restoration of communication and control systems on the Iranian side before entering Armenia. Economic conditions in Armenia may be affected by disruptions in trade with Iran, which supplies about 440 million cubic meters of gas annually, roughly 20% of Armenia’s imports. Rising costs of evacuation flights The first plane evacuating Armenian citizens from Oman landed in Yerevan. Meanwhile, the Armenian Embassy in the United Arab Emirates offered free transportation for Armenian citizens to Muscat to board subsequent special flights to Yerevan. In light of these developments, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan spoke by phone with his Omani counterpart Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, expressing gratitude for facilitating the evacuation of Armenian citizens from the United Arab Emirates through Oman to Armenia. On March 4, another plane from Muscat carrying 115 passengers — more than 90 of them Armenian citizens — landed in Yerevan. However, the need to evacuate people from increasingly unsafe Gulf states has driven up demand for flights to Armenia. Some passengers reported paying close to $1,400 for a plane ticket. By March 5, ticket prices had risen to around $1,500. One Armenian citizen said the government had encouraged citizens to return via Oman, while flights operated by flydubai — which resumed operations March 3 — cost around $560 per ticket. Evacuees flee Iran through Armenia By March 4, sources reported that approximately 1,500 evacuees had left Iran through Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Yerevan responsible for around 400. Among them, Dashkhin Sofiev, a Georgian national, described his experience fleeing Iran: “At 4 a.m. I saw a massive bomb from the hotel window for the first time. I think it was the day of the hospital bombing. That morning we went to Takestan, and then from Takestan to the Armenian border.” When asked about the number of Iranians crossing the border into Armenia, he said: “No, not many — 40 people at most, and not all of them were Iranian. There were foreigners. There were Chinese.” Yerevan also fulfilled its emerging role as an evacuation corridor for Kazakh and Russian citizens. Drone strikes on Nakhichevan On the Caucasus front, tensions escalated March 5 when a drone struck the “Nakhcivan Autonomous Republic” of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said: “The Azerbaijani state strongly condemns this ugly terrorist act, and those who committed it must be immediately held accountable.” The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry added: “We strongly condemn these drone attacks launched from the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Iran denied involvement. However, Azerbaijan’s defense minister said Iran had launched four drones toward Azerbaijan, one of which fell near a school. Following the incident, Aliyev announced the mobilization of armed forces, saying Baku must be ready to conduct any necessary operation. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan later spoke by phone with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov to discuss the situation and emphasize the need for stability and security. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry also released a statement thanking international partners and states for their messages of support following the attack. Among the countries mentioned was Armenia. The ministry also announced the withdrawal of its entire ambassadorial staff from Iran. Alarmingly, on March 3, unconfirmed reports also surfaced indicating that Azerbaijan had begun a military buildup along its border with Iran. In the context of border security, additional developments were reported during the past week, including reports indicating the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the Armenia-Turkey and Armenia-Iran borders. However, Russian military presence remains through its base in Gyumri and border checkpoints with Georgia. Uncertainty amid rising tensions Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said repeatedly that Yerevan is prepared for any potential fallout from the war with Iran and that there will be no shortages of goods in Armenia. The prime minister and other senior officials also said the TRIPP project would not pose an obstacle for any state nor face obstacles as a result of the war in Iran. Pashinyan also convened a second meeting of Armenia’s Security Council since the start of hostilities in Iran to discuss security and transportation issues. President Vahagn Khachatryan and National Assembly Speaker Alen Simonyan were also present. Meanwhile, the Iranian Embassy in Yerevan continued receiving visitors offering condolences for the loss of life in Iran. Among them were representatives of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, who expressed hope that the situation would stabilize quickly and that Armenia’s neighbor Iran would overcome the crisis. Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II also sent condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Armenians worldwide remain concerned for diaspora communities in the region, particularly Armenian Iranians. Ara Nazarian, a member of the Armenian National Committee of America who grew up in Iran and now lives in Massachusetts, told CBS News that “[Armenians] in Iran face the same challenges as other citizens — danger. Fortunately, none of our infrastructure has been hit, even though explosions have occurred very close.” The potential entry of Azerbaijan into the war could further complicate Armenia’s geopolitical situation. The war continues and its outcome remains uncertain. In the event of the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkey could potentially establish a direct link through Iranian territory. Such a development could invalidate the TRIPP project or the Zangezur Corridor debate raised by the Turkish-Azerbaijani side and further encircle Armenia. These possibilities, however, remain speculative amid ongoing uncertainty.