As Armenia breaks from Russia, U.S moves in

2026-02-12 - 19:56

U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Armenia on Feb. 10 has clearly demonstrated that Russia’s long-standing dominance in the South Caucasus is waning quickly. The strategically important region, long considered part of Moscow’s zone of influence, is now slipping into Washington’s geopolitical orbit. But who will be the major loser in this shift? Following the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 over Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seems to have made a decisive move away from Russia, seeking closer ties with the West — particularly the United States. In September 2023, he described Yerevan’s policy of relying solely on Russia to guarantee Armenia’s security as a “strategic mistake.” In June 2024, Armen Grigoryan, secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, accused Russia of “taking Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia, returning it to Azerbaijan and then leaving.” Earlier in 2021, following incidents on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, Grigoryan appealed to Russia under the 1997 defense treaty to protect Armenia’s territorial integrity. The Kremlin, however, remained silent, leaving its ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to handle the situation on its own. As a result of Moscow’s ambivalence, on Feb. 20, 2023, the European Union (EU) launched a civilian monitoring mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, marking the start of increased EU involvement in Armenia. Since then, Yerevan has steadily expanded military, political and economic ties with the West, while cooling off relations with Moscow. Later in 2023, Armenia began boycotting CSTO meetings. In 2024, it participated in NATO military exercises in Moldova. In April 2025, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed legislation initiating the country’s process of joining the European Union, despite Armenia being part of the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Previously, in January 2025, Armenia and the United States signed the “historic” Strategic Partnership Charter, which rests on four main pillars: economic cooperation, security and defense collaboration, democratic development and people-to-people exchanges. The document also established a legal framework for peaceful nuclear cooperation. Consequently, during Vance’s visit to Yerevan, the two nations reached a $5 billion civil nuclear energy agreement which, in Pashinyan’s view, “opens a new chapter in the deepening energy partnership between Armenia and the United States.” Coincidentally or not, the deal was signed just one day after Russian State Nuclear Energy Corporation Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev and the Speaker of the Armenian National Assembly, Alen Simonyan, discussed the construction of new nuclear power units in Armenia. While Moscow might view Yerevan’s nuclear deal with Washington as a “stab in the back,” Pashinyan is unlikely to cut energy ties with Russia immediately. More likely, he may adopt Kazakhstan’s approach: balancing between Rosatom and other corporations interested in doing business in Armenia. However, if Russia continues to lose influence across